Mosaic Sees Tight Grain, Oilseed Market Conditions in 2023 — Commodity Comment

By Denny Jacob

Mosaic Co. said the tight conditions seen in oilseed and grain markets are likely to continue into next year.

On grain and oilseed markets:

“Grain and oilseed markets are expected to remain tight through 2022 and 2023,” the fertilizer and feed-ingredient provider said.

“The disruption to Ukraine’s agricultural production caused by war, coupled with poor growing conditions in several major growing regions like the Americas, Europe and China, have resulted in lower global agricultural production. This suggests that global stocks-to-use ratios, already projected at 20-year lows, will remain under pressure.”

On nutrient applications:

“In North America, sentiment has improved significantly from the spring season. As a result, fall nutrient application rates are trending toward normal levels, and this is expected to deplete channel inventors.

“In Brazil, nutrient prices remain historically elevated but have retreated to levels that are incenting in-country shipments, which are expected to pull year-end inventories down to comparable levels to last year.

“In India, government subsidies, particularly for phosphates, are expected to remain at levels that support imports.”

On potash and phosphates:

For both potash and phosphates, supply constraints remain.

“In potash, we maintain our expectation that annual production from Belarus will be down 8 million tons year-over-year in 2022, and very little recovery is expected next year.

“In phosphates, China’s exports are estimated to be reduced by as much as 5 million tons versus 2021, and current export restrictions are expected to be extended into 2023.

“Together, the fundamental tightness in global markets for both potash and phosphates is expected to persist well into 2023 and quite likely beyond.”

Write to Denny Jacob at



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